Financial Markets: 3 Predictions

I may be wrong, BUT…

1. This is the End of the Financial Crisis–

This is the end, not the beginning, not the middle. AIG will likely get a $85B-$90B bridge loan from the Fed backed by company assets in exchange for a majority stake in the company. The Dow will continue its rise in the morning with the news of AIGs stabilization. Based on March market capitalization, AIG It is five times bigger than Lehman. AIG is the 13th largest company in the world according to the Fortune 500 versus 37 for Lehman. It is an insurance and annuities company mainly and not a broker. It affects Main St. Americans much more than Lehman did. It can’t, and won’t be liquidated.

2. Oil Is At a Bottom–

Oil is at its bottom. Remember $88.90 per barrel, the bottom today before it started rising at 2:30pm. It is the lowest we will see a barrel of oil sell for in the next fifteen years until sustainable energy technology (“ET” as Friedman calls it, “ST” as Sachs calls it) creates green power at a price/KWH that is lower than fossil fuels can and transportation fully converts to electric ( reducing global demand for oil significantly and possibly reducing the price under today’s price). Oil will trend upwards, more slowly, toward $150/barrel by the end of the decade.

3. The Dow and S&P Have Reached Their Bottom–

The DJIA has reached it’s bottom. Remember 10,742.70, the bottom today at market open. It’s the lowest you’ll see the DJIA go in your lifetime. The underlying profits and productivity of American businesses are simply too strong to justify the S&P 500 the same level it was at in December 1998, nearly ten years ago when the U.S. GDP was 58% lower than it is today (8.7T vs. 13.8T).

This graph shows the S&P 500 at the same place it was in December 1998. Today’s bottom was 1174.

I may be wrong here, BUT… I sure hope I’m not.

The Influence of Hank Greenberg on the Fed

As an aside, Hank Greenberg, a WWII hero and the former CEO of AIG for 37 years, has had quite a bit of influence on the Fed policy vis-a-vis AIG it seems. I heard him on Bloomberg radio today sounding like Mikheil Saakashvili on CNN five weeks ago when Russia was “invading” Tskhinvali. Greenberg wrote earlier today in the Financial Times:

“AIG is not an ordinary company. It has opened markets all over the world and, for more than three decades, stood at the vanguard of the liberalisation of the global trade in services. Its stock is owned directly or indirectly by millions of Americans. And it has contributed significantly to US gross domestic product directly and indirectly over the four decades of its existence. But all that is not why it should be saved. AIG has a trillion dollars in assets. It can (and always has) serviced its debt. With the right leadership, it will continue to do so. Action is needed now: AIG needs immediate help, because the threat to our financial system is real. For that reason, if private capital cannot rescue AIG, a temporary federal bridge loan – not a federal bail-out – is in order.”

The Greatest U.S. and Emerging Markets Equities Buying Opportunity of Our Lifetime

Update 10/20/08 - Looks like I was at least a month early on calling a bottom. I could have never predicted a drop to 8400. I just didn’t understand the de-leveraging process prior to watching it happen over the past month. I did love Buffett’s Op-ed from last Thursday. I’m more bullish now than ever about U.S. equities over the next 10 years. It truly is the best buying opportunity of our lifetimes for long-term investors.

==================

As Warren Buffett says, “Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful.”

It was a busy Sunday for Wall Street. It’s about to be a fearful Monday. This may create one of the best buying opportunities of our lifetimes.

After recently adding U.S. Trust and CountryWide into its fold, Bank of America has agreed to purchase Merrill Lynch tonight for $44B or $29 per share.

Lehman Brothers will likely declare bankruptcy on Monday morning due to it’s exposure to Credit Default Swaps and its inability to close the deal on a buy-out by Barclays. It will likely liquidate its assets in the coming weeks.

American International Group, the 18th largest company in the world, is seeking $40B in short-term liquidity from the Fed and will be announcing a restructuring on Monday morning which may including the sale of its aircraft leasing company.

In a move reminiscent of the private Long Term Capital Management bailout in 1998, ten major banks have agreed to create a $70B to $100B emergency fund to protect themselves from the results of the Lehman failure.

At a Bottom

I thought Bear Stearns was the end–then last week I thought Fannie and Freddie was the end. But now, this seems to be the official end of the financial crisis–the end to the credit market and subprime mortgage market crisis.

Tomorrow’s going to be painful day on Wall St. But for the smart Buffett-trained value-oriented buyer I’d suggest waiting about 30 minutes for the market clearing price to be establised and then buy. It may be the greatest U.S. Equities buying opportunity in our lifetime. Two years ago the Dow was at 11,500. One year ago the DOW was at 14,000. Tomorrow, the Dow may go under 11,000–for the last time in our lives. We’re at a bottom.

Buying Opportunities

Buy what? That’s a good question. I’ve never before written about equity opportunities or the positions I hold, but I’ll give it a shot. For full disclosure I currently own long shares of QQQQ, DUG, and SPY. I’m not making any recommendations to buy or sell, but instead recommending research and for you to make your own decisions.

Well, to play it safe, take a look at exchange traded index funds like SPY (S&P 500), DIA (Dow), or QQQQ (NASDAQ). They’ll track the markets and if the general markets go up in the future the value of your shares will go up.

For Higher Beta

For more risky bets look at a long financials ETF like Ultra Financials Pro (AMEX: UYG). But wait until the price resets after the first couple hours. It’s going to reset much lower when the market opens. It’s risky as AIG and WAMU remain at risk and the extent of the Lehman damage may not be immediately known, but it may provide significant upside in the next six months.

A Commodities Play

Or you could look at DIG (Ultralong Oil). Now that oil is under $100/barrel again it may be time to get back into energy for the long-term. I used a small amount of ‘theory testing funds’ in my TD Ameritrade account back in June and bought DUG (Ultrashort Oil) when oil was $130 per barrel and will hopefully sell it tomorrow with oil at $99. DUG’s near-inverse, DIG is down 48% in 90 days. It will hit a bottom as oil prices bottom out in the coming weeks.

Emerging Markets

Of course, you can always look at international opportunities. There is likely to be much more annual GDP in developing nations than in the U.S. over the next fifty years as these countries are starting from a lower base. Take a look at ADRE, an index of 50 emerging markets or BIK, which tracks the markets of Brazil, India, Russia, and China. If you want to look at China, you can take a look at individual equities like the Hong Kong Exchange or China Petroleum. Or you buy the Shanghai Composite, which is down 60% this year in a country with 8% annual GDP growth.

How to Be a Public Company CEO

I’m out here at the Pacific Crest Technology Leadership Forum in Vail, Colorado this week. The 600 attendees here are a mix of public institutional investors, hedge fund managers, investment bankers, public company analysts, venture capitalists, public company CEOs and CFOs, and private company CEOs and CFOs.

The investors are here to meet the management of the public and soon-to-be public companies and to build relationships with the people that feed them data about these companies–the analysts. The analysts are here so they can publish research on these companies to sell to the investors. The investment bankers are here to build relationships with the management of companies they hope to sell, advise on acquisitions for, take public, or do follow-on offerings for. The CEOs and CFOs are here so they can raise money from the investors and get covered by the analysts. It’s a fascinating dynamic.

I’m learning how to be public company CEO. Here are some of the things I’ve learned.

The Process of Going Public

The general process of taking your company public in the United States is:

1. Build your company to at least $40M in annual sales (the sort-of-hard ‘takes 7 years’ part).
2. Reach breakeven or profitability and have solid positive EBITDA in sight.
3. Invite investment bankers to pitch you in what’s called a ‘bake-off’
4. Buy labels and write on them the price of your cakes and cookies
5. Select two of the following ‘bulge-bracket’ investment bankers to ‘bookrun’ your initial offering of shares: Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, Merrill Lynch, Lehman Brothers, UBS, Citigroup, and JP Morgan
6. Select two to three ’boutique’ investment bankers to ‘co-lead’ your initial offering of shares such as Pacific Crest, Jeffries, Piper Jaffray, William Blair, Cowan, Needham (there are dozens and dozens)
7. These four or five banks form your ‘underwriting syndicate’ (the people who help you ‘make a market’ for the percentage of your company that you are selling to the public by taking initial orders from institutional investors).
8. Meet with your bankers to write your ‘Form S-1‘ which is a couple hundred page document detailing every part of your business, every product, every management team member, every metric, every material agreement, every options plan, every differentiation, every risk etc.
9. Determine which exchange you wish to list on. The NYSE has higher revenue requirements than the NASDAQ. The NASDAQ is weighted toward technology companies. NYSE ARCA and NYSE Euronext are also options for smaller offerings, as is the AMEX. The London Stock Exchange (AIM) is also sometimes an option, though it requires different filing steps and doesn’t presently provide the branding imprimatur or liquidity that a New York exchange does.
10. Presuming you are going public on an American exchange, file your S-1 with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
11. Publicly announce your registration and your intent to go public.
12. Respond back to the comments and questions that the SEC provides until they tell you you are good to go.
13. Determine with your bankers which metrics and the definition of each metric you will report to ‘the Street’ (the institutional investors that will buy/sell your shares and analysts which will cover your company once it’s public). You will have to report all financials (bookings, revenue, GM, COGS, Cap Ex, R&D, Sales & Marketing, General & Admin, OpEx, Net Profit, EBITDA, assets, liabilities, ARs, APs) and numbers such as customers, growth rate, ARPU, retention/churn, LTV, and CAC.
14. Work with your bankers to craft your story and prepare your slidedeck for the roadshow, emphasizing your strengths, metrics, and opportunity.
15. If the market timing is good then prepare for your roadshow. The market is rather bad right now (August 2008) for IPOs. There have been no venture-backed IPOs to date in 2008, although there will likely be a few in Q4 and many in 2009.
16. Determine your initial price per share target and how much money you wish to raise, and the percentage of the company you wish to sell to the public market.
17. Hold an ‘IPO roadshow’ in which you and your CFO visit the major U.S. cities to present to the institutional investors and mutual fund managers who may wish to purchase your shares.
18. At this point your ‘bookrunners’ will take orders for shares and help build interest among firms that they know have demand for businesses like yours.
19. Based on demand (# of orders) you and your investment bankers make a final determination on price per share, amount of shares to sell, and who to sell shares to (ideally stable investors that won’t trade out of your stock right away) the night before or the morning of the listing.
20. Ring the bell the morning of your offering and celebrate. Watch the wire of funds go into your corporate bank account. Now the work begins to properly manage expectations, overperform, and gain trust with your investors.

The Advantages to Being Public

The advantages to going public are generally greater access to capital to help grow the business, liquidity for pre-IPO shareholders (though not for at least 6 months after the offering), an ability to command a higher revenue multiple than most private companies can, and a greater level of trust and respect among larger customers or vendors.

The Disadvantages of Being Public

The disadvantages of being a publicly traded company include the 3 months of time you as CEO will have to be fully focused on going public and the 6 months your CFO will have to be fully focused on the process of going public–causing you to lose some focus on operations, having to report many of your key metrics and strategies to the public–including your competitors, having to ‘manage to the Street’ or in other words manage your results and report every quarter which sometimes causes short-term thinking, an inability to be fully flexible, the legal reporting requirements of Sarbanes-Oxley that cost around $2 million per year in compliance costs, and a requirement to be profitable or within clear visibility of profitability that sometimes can limit ability to pursue growth.

Some Tips for the Public Company CEO To Be

Here’s a few tips I’ve picked up here at the conference on being a public company CEO.

1. Manage Expectations Well: Become very good at managing expectations. As a public company CEO your job is to consistently hit or outperform your revenues and earnings per share (EPS) guidance every quarter. It takes time to develop trust with institutional investors. And if you go out saying one thing and end up not hitting that plan and doing another, it will cause turnover among your shareholder base, which will cause your share price to go down (bad). To become very good at managing expectations, make sure you have a solid financial model in place that can very accurately model future revenues, bookings, gross margins, and earnings projections. Don’t go out indicating you’ll have 10% net profits and then decide that you’re going to have 3% net profits so you can grow faster.
2. Build Relationships Before You Need Them: Just as with raising venture capital, build the relationships before you need them. Start going to the analyst and investment banker conferences at least 18 months prior to your offering and build relationships with both the ibankers and public investors. Make sure they know who you are and like you and the company story many months prior to the roadshow.
3. Pick Sticky Investors: When you are going out, you’ll decide which institutional investors get to purchase your stock and which do not. Ask in your contract with your investment bank that you significant input if not have final say as CEO. Get to know in advance which firms are long-term investors and which are not. You can use a service like the ‘Business Intelligence’ offering from Thompson Reuters to determine which institutions are looking at your deck and materials. Pick the firms that are going to hold your stock and not have high share turnover. Be wary of hedge funds who have high portfolio turnover.

Hope you enjoyed the post! I’ve still got a lot to learn so please let me know in the comments what I’ve mis-stated or altogether missed. Man I love this stuff.