Tom Friedman: Why We Need a Green Revolution, And How It Can Renew America
May 23, 2008
What is next after the Information Technology (IT) revolution of the last 30 years?
Well, according to Thomas Friedman, it’s the Energy Technology (ET) revolution.
Last Monday I had the chance to hear Mr. Friedman give an impassioned presentation at Duke’s Terry Sanford Institute for Public Policy. I made the following notes from Tom’s presentation about his new book, Hot, Flat, and Crowded. All of the below viewpoints are not necessarily mine, but I do very much share his stated urgency for encouraging investment in energy technology.
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The Emperor Has Lost Her Groove
Hot, Flat, and Crowded masquerades as a book about energy and the environment. In reality, it’s a book about American losing its way, losing its groove. American has lost her groove over the past 15 years due to:
- Our reaction after 9/11–going into the Iraq War
- The loss of a superpower competitor in the USSR
- Our government not operating efficiently since Bush was elected
We have become the United States of Fighting Terrorism instead of the The United States of America. Our day should be July 4th not September 11th. The government in Washington D.C. simply has been unable to solve long-term multigenerational problems any longer. The U.S. is as innovative as ever, but the government is not maximizing this opportunity.
Energy Technology will have 10x the impact Information Technology had. We need a common vision. What ‘red’ was as a coordinating force in 1950, ‘green’ must be 2008. But instead of going from red to green we’ve gone from red to code red–to a politics of fear.
Meaning of the Title
The significance of the title is:
- HOT – Global warming, the climate system is sensitive. There is only 6 degrees celsius between the ice age and today.
- FLAT – The rise of the middle class all over the world
- CROWDED – Population growth. 2.6B people in 1953 when Friedman was born. 9.2B people in 2053 when he reaches 100 years old. Fuels that we are using today are expensive, exhaustible, and toxic.
The 5 Megaproblems Our World Has:
Key to the book are the five megaproblems our world has. They are:
- Energy and Natural Resources Running Out
- Petrodictatorship
- Climate Change
- Energy Poverty
- Biodiversity Loss
1. Energy & Natural Resources Running Out When flat meets crowded, in an unsustainable world, watch out! There are skyscrapers blossoming from the desert floor in Doha, Qatar. In the 4 years since he was last there, Doha has sprouted a Manhattan. In another city you haven’t heard of, Dalian, China, they’ve also sprouted a Manhattan. That clean air initiative in Vermont was just wiped out by unsustainable growth in a place you probably haven’t heard of.
2. Petrodictatorship
This is the concept of oil revenues leading to great power for semi-elected or unelected leaders/dictators, leading to worse relations with the United States. As price of oil goes up, freedom for oil producing countries goes down. When oil was at it’s de minimus point in 1995 at $16 per barrel, the index of freedom was at its highest in countries like Nigeria, Venezuela, Russia, and Iran. As oil prices have gone up, freedom has declined.
3. Climate Change
The weather will get weirder. The droughts will get longer. The hurricanes will get bigger. There is so much CO2 being released into the atmosphere, we don’t know any more what is an act of God and what is an act of man. Did ‘we’ make Katrina or did ‘He’ make Katrina?
Al Gore should apologize to the world. He should apologize that he underestimated the problem of climate change. Due to China growing faster than initially projected, the original estimates from five years ago were too low. There’s one good thing about healthcare getting better over time–All the climate change deniers are going to live long enough to find out how wrong they were.
4. Energy Poverty
25% of the world is not yet on the electric grid. In China, every 2 weeks generates as much new electricity as sub-Saharan Africa in 1 year, excluding South Africa. Without energy you will fall behind as a society exponentially–in education, healthcare, technology. To be energy poor will be problematic–for us and for ‘them.’
5. Biodiversity Loss
We are the first generation of humans who are having to think like Noah–having to think about saving the last two pair of every species. We are losing thousands and thousands of species that will inhibit our ability to find new medicines.
Problems or Opportunities?
There are two ways to look at this list. Either they are A) Insoluble Problems or B) Incredible Opportunities.
The solution is simple: Abundant, Clean, Cheap, Reliable Electrons. The country that comes up with abundant, clean, cheap, reliable electrons will have the most global respect and the most financial success. America can be this country. We have to rethink green. We are positioned to lead this revolution. Green is the new Red, White, and Blue. Green is the new Patriotism.
The Green Revolution or The Green Party?
Some say we’re in a green revolution already. But no, we’re just having a green party. There’s never been a revolution without someone getting hurt. You’ll know the revolution is here when someone gets hurt. Not physically–but financially. Just like NCR and DataGeneral died when they did not evolve in the IT Revolution and ended up in the Great IT Heaven In The Sky. The world is flat, so change or die, adapt or die.
This is not yet a revolution. It’s a green party. I know–I’m invited to them all.
This revolution will not be easy. It will be the greatest industrial project mankind has ever undergone.
How Do We Stimulate the Revolution Before It is Too Late?
How do we go about finding solutions? We have to innovate our way out of the problem–through the American Marketplace, U.S. universities, and venture capital. We have to find the next ‘Green Google’ and ‘Green Microsoft.’
We need government stimulus however, and here’s why. In the IT Revolution, it was a greenfield opportunity. There were no microcomputers previously. There was no Internet previously. There was nothing to replace. In the ET revolution, there’s existing competition, existing competition from dirty fuels that today are slightly cheaper in the short term, but much more expensive in the long term.
In order to stimulate the start of the ET revolution the Government must force us to take into account the true full cost of dirty fuel. If we do this, we will reach the China Price–the price at which ET will scale in India and China. We need to pay the ‘fully burdened’ cost of the lights. Only the government can do this. This policy will drive immense investment in clean ET and ET will go down the price/volume curve and soon enough become cheaper than we currently pay today.
By putting in a price floor for a barrel oil, for example at $100, firms and investors will be able to make investments in ET without concern that the price will drop and in the short-term they’ll be uncompetitive and die.
By following the policy, the amount the consumer pays over the non-fully burdened cost (if it is less than $100/barrel) would go to the government in the short-term to allow them to invest in ET. This is much better than what happens currently, where the excess goes to petrodictatorships that often work against America’s interests.
Green Revolution Great for American Economy
With higher clean standards, government encouragement, and insurance that the fully burdened price will be charged, the price signals for ET will be right and investment will boom. There is only one thing more powerful than Mother Nature, and that is Father Profit.
As an example, Erie, PA has a export surplus. How does Erie, PA have an export surplus? They have a plan for GE that produces a hybrid locomotive called the EVO. It is in very high demand become it is very efficient with energy. ET is good for the American economy and our trade balance.
We must increase clean standards to force innovations. Standards and price signals matter. If we don’t have a floor under the price of oil, we can’t make investments in ET. In order to launch the Green Revolution and scale, we must do this.
Not About The Whales Anymore
All great change in history was made by optimists. The future is choice, not fate. When you put people together you put the planet together. This is not about the whales anymore. It’s about us. We are all sailing on the Mayflower again.
We must redefine green and rediscover America. $5B in VC went into ET in 2007. But $80B in VC went into IT in 2000. $5B is nothing. We need a game changer. We need standards and a fully-burdened price floor. Then investment will take off.
There’s Now Only One Green Candidate in the U.S. Election
We need the next U.S. President to be a real CEO–a Chief Energy Officer.
As President you have a big bully pulpit. We need him to use it to promote ET. This is the future for America.
I won’t say who I support for President, but let’s just say my wife supports Obama and I love my wife. There’s a guy with 13 cars and a guy with a Ford Escape Hybrid. There’s only one green candidate in this election. We had two, but McCain has changed for the worse under the influence of Drill Baby Drill. Don’t be fooled by windmills in advertisements.
We need to find abundant, cheap, clean, reliable electrons. We need to create green collar jobs–the new blue collar jobs.
How could some people be chanting, “Drill, Baby, Drill.” It’s just stupid. It’s like on the eve of the IT revolution in 1978 someone was chanting “Carbon Paper, Baby, Carbon Paper.” Our motto should be “Invent, Baby, Invent.”
How to Be a Credible Energy Activist
Utilities today are paid based on how much they use. They should be paid on how much they help you save. We need to rewrite the rules for utilities like California and Idaho have.
If you want to be an energy activist, learn what the rules are and how to change the rules. Don’t just protest.
Isn’t it BRICs Turn To Be Dirty?
Brazil, Russia, India, and China might have an argument that we’ve developed dirty for 150 years and now its their turn. I was in China speaking at a conference of auto-industry executives. I said to them, “Sure you can be dirty for the next 20 years if you want. That might save you some money. In the mean time, America’s innovation engine will revolution the world with clean electric cars that cost less and don’t require costly fuel and by the time you wake up we will eat your lunch economically. Sure, go ahead and be dirty.”
China is hiding behind us. If we move, they move.
An Earth Race
We had a Space Race. Now we need an Earth Race. An Earth Race so that man and woman can live sustainably. Without it, we’re dead.
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What Do You Think?
What are your thoughts? Is Friedman right? Does he overestimate the problem or is he right on? What do you think about the oil price floor? Please feel free to comment below.
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